← TinyRobot Grand Mythic Champion PTM
Water FractalTier 2
at TinyRobot Grand Mythic Champion PTM
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 26.2% | -17.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.9% | +23.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |